KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
26-39 | Road
6
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
30-36 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Lucas Erceg
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Andrew Morris
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Erceg | None-None | 6.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Andrew Morris | None-None | 5.14 | -- | 1.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.00
ERA
Ldr 5.14
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
58%
TWINS
42%
ROYALS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
KC By 1-2 runs
16.3%
KC By 3-4 runs
19.6%
MIN By 1-2 runs
7.8%
MIN By 3-4 runs
3.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
8
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
4
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Kansas City
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Royals
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Royals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.718
OPS
▲
.720
170
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+17.7% more
Kansas City: 8.7
vs
Minnesota: 7.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+9.5% more
Kansas City: 7.7
vs
Minnesota: 7.0
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Errors (L5)
+68.0% more
Minnesota: 1.2
vs
Kansas City: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
8.0
6
MIN Score
4.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.2 / 8.7
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 7.7
15.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
13.3 / 12.4
12.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.2 / 2.6
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
KC
MIN
KC
ML
52%
84-78
55%
89-72
50%
80-81
56%
90-70
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
58%
90-64-7
53%
80-72-9
54%
83-70-7
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