TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
37-24 | Road
1
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
30-35 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Steven Matz
#32 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Matz | None-None | 5.55 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 3.55 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.55
ERA
Ldr 3.55
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
46%
MARLINS
54%
RAYS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.6%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Miami
4
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
TAMPA BAY
Miami
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
% Win Prob
None
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim
Proj Runs:
None
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
Proj Total:
None
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 7, 2026
TB @ MIA
1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026
TB @ MIA
3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026
TB @ MIA
6 - 0
May 17, 2026
MIA @ TB
3 - 6
May 16, 2026
MIA @ TB
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728
▲
OPS
.727
169
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+66.8% more
Miami: 3.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.3
Errors (L5)
+54.0% more
Miami: 1.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+46.0% more
Miami: 1.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+11.9% more
Miami: 12.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
1
MIA Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 7.0
5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.4
10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.0 / 10.7
8.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.3
1.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TB
MIA
TB
ML
48%
78-84
58%
95-68
55%
88-72
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
91-71
60%
97-66
54%
86-74
55%
90-73
TTL
56%
88-69-5
47%
73-81-9
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-75-10
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