TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
37-23 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
29-35 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Zuber
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 2.57 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Tyler Zuber | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.57
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
50%
MARLINS
50%
RAYS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIA By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Miami
3
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Marlins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 7, 2026
TB @ MIA
1 - 4
Jun 6, 2026
TB @ MIA
3 - 4
Jun 5, 2026
TB @ MIA
6 - 0
May 17, 2026
MIA @ TB
3 - 6
May 16, 2026
MIA @ TB
10 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.41
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.249
.326
On-Base (OBP)
.326
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.728
▲
OPS
.727
169
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+20.4% more
Tampa Bay: 8.0
vs
Miami: 6.4
Total Bases (L5)
+16.1% more
Tampa Bay: 13.1
vs
Miami: 11.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Miami: 4.4
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.9%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Miami: 24.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.0
3
MIA Score
3.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.0 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.4 / 8.0
10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.0
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.0 / 8.6
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 13.1
14.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.0
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TB
MIA
TB
ML
48%
78-84
58%
95-68
55%
88-72
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
91-71
60%
97-66
54%
86-74
55%
90-73
TTL
56%
88-69-5
47%
73-81-9
53%
82-73-5
51%
78-75-10
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