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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

32-32  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Jun 6 • 4:10 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

33-30  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Orlando Ribalta
STARTING PITCHER

Orlando Ribalta

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jonathan Loaisiga
STARTING PITCHER

Jonathan Loaisiga

#43 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orlando Ribalta None-None 1.56 -- 1.0 --
Jonathan Loaisiga None-None 3.00 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.56 Ldr ERA 3.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
59%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
41%
NATIONALS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 53%
Under 0 47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

30.9%

Diamondbacks Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
WASHINGTON
5
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
4
WASHINGTON
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Diamondbacks Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Diamondbacks (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Diamondbacks (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 26, 2026 ARI @ WSH 7 - 10
Jul 25, 2026 ARI @ WSH 3 - 5
Jul 24, 2026 ARI @ WSH 3 - 2
Jun 7, 2026 WSH @ ARI 1 - 5
Jun 6, 2026 WSH @ ARI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.246
Avg (AVG)
.246
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744 ▲
OPS
.720
210 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +11.5% more
Arizona: 4.2 vs Washington: 3.7
Home Runs (L5) +46.2% more
Washington: 2.1 vs Arizona: 1.1
Errors (L5) +43.0% more
Washington: 0.7 vs Arizona: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +31.9% more
Washington: 16.6 vs Arizona: 11.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 3.0 6
ARI Score 5.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 9.4 2.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 2.1 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 6.6 / 8.1 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.3 / 16.6 2.0 / 17.0
Walks 4.2 / 3.7 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
97%MONEY3%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
WSH
ARI
WSH
ML
54% 87-74
57% 92-69
54% 86-74
54% 87-74
ATS
57% 91-70
58% 93-68
56% 89-71
57% 91-70
TTL
52% 80-73-8
50% 77-78-6
49% 73-77-9
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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