Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Padres NYM @ SD

NEW YORK

METSNYM

28-35  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sat, Jun 6 • 10:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

32-30  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Nolan McLean
STARTING PITCHER

Nolan McLean

#26 | Starting Pitcher
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Nolan McLean None-None 3.98 -- 6.0 5
Mason Miller None-None 1.01 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.98 ERA Ldr 1.01
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
77%
📊
PADRES
23%
METS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (New York)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

69.1%

Padres Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

18.4%

SD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4
NEW YORK
2
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Mets Loss
77% Win Prob
B
Sim Padres Win
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Mets (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Padres (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u7.5 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 19, 2026 SD @ NYM 2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026 SD @ NYM 5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026 SD @ NYM 1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026 NYM @ SD 7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026 NYM @ SD 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.705
OPS
▲ .925
204 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs San Diego: 4.0
Total Bases (L5) +52.3% more
New York: 15.8 vs San Diego: 7.5
Home Runs (L5) +50.3% more
New York: 1.6 vs San Diego: 0.8
Hits (L5) +45.1% more
New York: 8.7 vs San Diego: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.0 2
SD Score 2.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 4.8 / 8.7 5.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 7.6 10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 7.5 / 15.8 8.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.0 / 3.0 3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYM
SD
NYM
ML
51% 85-83
50% 79-80
51% 85-82
48% 76-83
ATS
54% 91-77
58% 93-66
55% 92-75
49% 78-81
TTL
51% 82-80-6
55% 80-66-13
54% 86-74-6
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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