CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
31-31 | Road
5
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
33-28 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Moll | None-None | 2.96 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 3.81 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.96 Ldr
ERA
3.81
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
45%
CARDINALS
55%
REDS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
STL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Cincinnati
4
CINCINNATI
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Cardinals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
STL @ CIN
10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026
STL @ CIN
4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026
STL @ CIN
3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026
STL @ CIN
2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026
CIN @ STL
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati
CIN
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.394
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.699
▲
OPS
.691
213
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+25.6% more
St. Louis: 9.6
vs
Cincinnati: 7.7
Total Bases (L5)
+16.7% more
St. Louis: 14.4
vs
Cincinnati: 12.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+8.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.0%
St. Louis: 23.9%
vs
Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CIN Score
4.0
5
STL Score
5.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.6 / 7.7
12.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.0
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.8
6.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 12.3
18.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.2 / 6.2
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CIN
STL
CIN
ML
53%
85-74
55%
88-71
52%
84-77
49%
79-81
ATS
56%
89-70
54%
86-73
53%
85-76
50%
80-80
TTL
46%
68-81-10
53%
81-73-5
50%
76-75-10
54%
83-72-5
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