Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Rangers CLE @ TEX

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

36-29  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Jun 6 • 7:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

31-32  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Tim Herrin
STARTING PITCHER

Tim Herrin

#29 | Relief Pitcher
@
Robby Ahlstrom
STARTING PITCHER

Robby Ahlstrom

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tim Herrin None-None 2.91 -- 1.0 1
Robby Ahlstrom None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.91 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
32%
📊
RANGERS
68%
GUARDIANS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Texas)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

40.1%

Rangers Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

CLE By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CLE By 3-4 runs

10.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CLEVELAND
6
TEXAS
Simulated Score
4
CLEVELAND
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026 TEX @ CLE 6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026 CLE @ TEX 0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026 CLE @ TEX 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.19 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.696
OPS
▲ .713
162
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +26.5% more
Texas: 10.0 vs Cleveland: 7.9
Walks (L5) +20.7% more
Texas: 2.3 vs Cleveland: 1.9
Home Runs (Season) +13.0% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Cleveland: 162.0
Errors (L5) +12.0% more
Texas: 0.4 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 5.0 6
TEX Score 6.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.0 / 7.1 3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.0 / 7.9 4.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 11.9 / 12.4 3.0 / 16.0
Walks 2.3 / 1.9 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
33%MONEY67%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CLE
TEX
CLE
ML
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 92-70
58% 93-68
61% 98-63
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 88-71-2
55% 81-66-14
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 2 hours, 22 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 2 hours, 30 minutes ago
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
players_bio 8 hours, 8 minutes ago
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
yahoo 8 hours, 21 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 20 hours, 6 minutes ago