BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
30-33 | Road
13
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
30-33 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Anthony Nunez
#66 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trey Yesavage
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Nunez | None-None | 5.10 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Trey Yesavage | None-None | 3.16 | -- | 5.2 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.10
ERA
Ldr 3.16
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
57%
BLUE JAYS
43%
ORIOLES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
BAL By 1-2 runs
3.5%
BAL By 3-4 runs
1.2%
TOR By 1-2 runs
10.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
2
BALTIMORE
Toronto
8
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
74% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -6.0
D
Sim
Blue Jays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Toronto
TOR
161
Games Played
▲
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.711
▲
OPS
.692
199
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+54.6% more
Toronto: 3.5
vs
Baltimore: 2.3
Errors (L5)
+26.0% more
Toronto: 0.4
vs
Baltimore: 0.2
Home Runs (L5)
+22.0% more
Toronto: 0.9
vs
Baltimore: 0.7
Hits (L5)
+18.1% more
Toronto: 11.0
vs
Baltimore: 9.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
2.0
13
TOR Score
8.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.0 / 9.4
8.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 6.7
9.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 13.7
12.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.5 / 2.3
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
BAL
TOR
BAL
ML
46%
74-87
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
ATS
56%
90-71
61%
95-60-1
49%
79-81
57%
90-68-1
TTL
51%
80-76-5
54%
81-70-5
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-6
Contextual Game News
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