ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
30-32 | Road
1
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
28-36 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Barnett
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Barnett | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 4.0 | 7 |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.00
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
7 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
45%
ASTROS
55%
ATHLETICS
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around HOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
ATH By 1-2 runs
16.3%
ATH By 3-4 runs
10.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
19.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Houston
6
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Athletics
4
ATHLETICS
Houston
7
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Astros
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Astros
Win
72% Win Prob
B
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
HOU @ ATH
9 - 0
Sep 26, 2026
HOU @ ATH
13 - 2
Sep 25, 2026
HOU @ ATH
5 - 6
Sep 24, 2026
HOU @ ATH
7 - 5
Aug 23, 2026
ATH @ HOU
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.719
▲
OPS
.582
194
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+79.4% more
Houston: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 2.5
Errors (L5)
+40.0% more
Houston: 0.7
vs
Athletics: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+10.3% more
Houston: 9.0
vs
Athletics: 8.1
Home Runs (Season)
+97.9% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
5.0
1
HOU Score
6.0
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.0 / 8.1
6.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.7 / 8.8
10.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
14.5 / 16.1
11.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.5
5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
ATH
HOU
ATH
ML
50%
81-82
59%
95-67
47%
77-87
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
91-72
52%
84-78
55%
90-74
50%
81-80
TTL
45%
70-84-9
54%
84-73-5
45%
69-86-9
42%
66-90-5
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