PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
34-29 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
42-21 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mitch Keller
#23 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Keller | None-None | 4.81 | -- | 4.2 | 4 |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 0.92 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.81
ERA
Ldr 0.92
--
WHIP
--
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
55%
BRAVES
45%
PIRATES
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
18.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 9, 2026
ATL @ PIT
10 - 5
Jul 8, 2026
ATL @ PIT
3 - 0
Jul 7, 2026
ATL @ PIT
4 - 12
Jun 7, 2026
PIT @ ATL
2 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
PIT @ ATL
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.73
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.324
.404
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.734
OPS
▲
.757
186
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.5% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+55.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.8
vs
Atlanta: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+36.1% more
Pittsburgh: 10.4
vs
Atlanta: 6.7
Total Bases (L5)
+27.9% more
Pittsburgh: 17.8
vs
Atlanta: 12.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
5.0
3
ATL Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.7 / 10.4
9.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.8
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 9.8
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.8 / 17.8
14.0 / 5.0
Walks
2.6 / 3.1
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
PIT
ATL
PIT
ML
46%
77-90
52%
82-77
54%
90-78
52%
85-78
ATS
57%
96-71
54%
86-73
52%
87-81
50%
81-82
TTL
53%
83-73-11
47%
72-81-6
49%
76-80-11
50%
79-78-6
Contextual Game News
Cardinals Eye Another Dustin May-Style Signing to Bolster Rotati…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom