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CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

31-30  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Jun 5 • 8:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

32-28  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Brock Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Burke

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Hunter Dobbins
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Dobbins

#40 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brock Burke None-None 3.38 -- 1.0 1
Hunter Dobbins None-None 2.77 -- 5.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 ERA Ldr 2.77
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
REDS
64%
📊
CARDINALS
36%
REDS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (St. Louis)
RedsCIN (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Reds Cover

40.1%

Cardinals Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

CIN By 1-2 runs

16.3%

CIN By 3-4 runs

10.6%

STL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
CINCINNATI
5
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
CINCINNATI
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cardinals Win
36% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
61% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Cardinals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 STL @ CIN 10 - 9
Aug 19, 2026 STL @ CIN 4 - 5
Aug 18, 2026 STL @ CIN 3 - 0
Aug 17, 2026 STL @ CIN 2 - 1
Jul 26, 2026 CIN @ STL 5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Cincinnati CIN
vs
St. Louis STL
162
Games Played
162
4.11
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.229
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.305
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.394 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.699 ▲
OPS
.691
213 ▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +34.9% more
St. Louis: 9.4 vs Cincinnati: 7.0
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8 vs Cincinnati: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season) +8.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
Batting Avg (Season) +1.0%
St. Louis: 23.9% vs Cincinnati: 22.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CIN Score 4.0 3
STL Score 5.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 9.4 / 7.0 10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.5 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.6 7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 13.5 16.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.8 / 4.9 4.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
43%MONEY57%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CIN
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CIN
STL
CIN
ML
53% 85-74
55% 88-71
52% 84-77
49% 79-81
ATS
56% 89-70
54% 86-73
53% 85-76
50% 80-80
TTL
46% 68-81-10
53% 81-73-5
50% 76-75-10
54% 83-72-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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