WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
31-32 | Road
14
ARIZONA
DIAMONDBACKSARI
33-29 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Nasim Nunez
#26 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Merrill Kelly
#29 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasim Nunez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Merrill Kelly | None-None | 5.71 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
5.71
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
5.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
4
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
50%
DIAMONDBACKS
50%
NATIONALS
--
DIAMONDBACKS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Arizona)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)
WSH By 1-2 runs
10.6%
WSH By 3-4 runs
5.4%
ARI By 1-2 runs
18.4%
ARI By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
Arizona
6
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Arizona
5
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Diamondbacks
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Diamondbacks (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 26, 2026
ARI @ WSH
7 - 10
Jul 25, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 5
Jul 24, 2026
ARI @ WSH
3 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
WSH @ ARI
1 - 5
Jun 6, 2026
WSH @ ARI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington
WSH
vs
Arizona
ARI
162
Games Played
162
5.07
▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.246
Avg (AVG)
.246
.321
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.423
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.744
▲
OPS
.720
210
▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+56.0% more
Arizona: 1.2
vs
Washington: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+39.8% more
Arizona: 12.4
vs
Washington: 8.9
Hits (L5)
+21.0% more
Arizona: 7.4
vs
Washington: 6.2
Walks (L5)
+50.8% more
Washington: 5.6
vs
Arizona: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
14
ARI Score
6.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.4 / 6.2
6.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 8.7
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 8.9
9.0 / 32.0
Walks
2.8 / 5.6
7.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
Advantage
86-76-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
ARI
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
WSH
ARI
WSH
ML
54%
87-74
57%
92-69
54%
86-74
54%
87-74
ATS
57%
91-70
58%
93-68
56%
89-71
57%
91-70
TTL
52%
80-73-8
50%
77-78-6
49%
73-77-9
42%
65-90-6
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