NEW YORK
METSNYM
27-35 | Road
5
SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
32-29 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Christian Scott
#45 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yuki Matsui
#1 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Scott | None-None | 2.50 | -- | 5.2 | 3 |
| Yuki Matsui | None-None | 0.53 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.50
ERA
Ldr 0.53
--
WHIP
--
5.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
METS
70%
PADRES
30%
METS
--
PADRES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5
NEW YORK
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
San Diego
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Padres
Loss
30% Win Prob
D
Sim
Padres
Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Padres (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Padres (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 19, 2026
SD @ NYM
2 - 4
Aug 18, 2026
SD @ NYM
5 - 2
Aug 17, 2026
SD @ NYM
1 - 2
Jun 7, 2026
NYM @ SD
7 - 3
Jun 6, 2026
NYM @ SD
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
San Diego
SD
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
6.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.328
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.362
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.563
.705
OPS
▲
.925
204
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+39.2% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+22.0%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+16.8%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
New York: 39.5%
Errors (L5)
+14.0% more
San Diego: 0.8
vs
New York: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.0
5
SD Score
6.0
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.7 / 8.5
3.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.4 / 8.8
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
9.8 / 14.2
3.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.4
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
NYM
SD
NYM
ML
51%
85-83
50%
79-80
51%
85-82
48%
76-83
ATS
54%
91-77
58%
93-66
55%
92-75
49%
78-81
TTL
51%
82-80-6
55%
80-66-13
54%
86-74-6
51%
74-72-13
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