Home / MLB Projections MLB / Red Sox @ Yankees BOS @ NYY

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

26-35  |  Road

5
FINAL
Fri, Jun 5 • 7:05 PM ET
Yankee Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

YANKEESNYY

37-25  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Aroldis Chapman
STARTING PITCHER

Aroldis Chapman

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Paul Blackburn
STARTING PITCHER

Paul Blackburn

#58 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Aroldis Chapman None-None 0.46 -- 1.0 1
Paul Blackburn None-None 2.89 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
0.46 Ldr ERA 2.89
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
35%
📊
YANKEES
65%
RED SOX --
YANKEES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Red SoxBOS (-3.5) 0 YankeesNYY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Sox Cover

40.1%

Yankees Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.6%

NYY By 1-2 runs

19.6%

NYY By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6
BOSTON
7
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
4
BOSTON
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yankees Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim Yankees Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yankees (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Yankees (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 13.0
C
Sim o8.0 Push
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 2 - 9
Sep 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 9
Aug 30, 2026 BOS @ NYY 1 - 16
Aug 29, 2026 BOS @ NYY 6 - 0
Aug 28, 2026 BOS @ NYY 0 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston BOS
vs
New York NYY
2 ▲
Games Played
1
1.00
Runs / Game
▲ 9.00
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲ .375
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .447
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .594
.409
OPS
▲ 1.041
2
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +800.0% more
New York: 9.0 vs Boston: 1.0
Slugging Pct (Season) +34.4%
New York: 59.4% vs Boston: 25.0%
On-Base Pct (Season) +28.8%
New York: 44.7% vs Boston: 15.9%
Batting Avg (Season) +25.8%
New York: 37.5% vs Boston: 11.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 6.0 5
NYY Score 7.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.5 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.0 / 9.7 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.2 / 9.2 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 15.3 15.0 / 13.0
Walks 2.9 / 4.0 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
95-71-0 (57.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
NYY Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
BOS
NYY
BOS
ML
47% 76-85
50% 80-80
52% 85-77
47% 76-87
ATS
59% 95-66
58% 93-67
53% 86-76
48% 79-84
TTL
53% 81-73-7
46% 72-83-5
53% 82-72-7
47% 74-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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