Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Diamondbacks LAD @ ARI

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

40-22  |  Road

2
FINAL
Thu, Jun 4 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

32-29  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brandyn Garcia
STARTING PITCHER

Brandyn Garcia

#55 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tanner Scott None-None 2.42 -- 0.1 1
Brandyn Garcia None-None 0.69 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.42 ERA Ldr 0.69
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
65%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
35%
DODGERS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Arizona)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

30.9%

Diamondbacks Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

LAD By 1-2 runs

13.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

7.8%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
2
LOS ANGELES
4
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
5
LOS ANGELES
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Win
35% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026 LAD @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026 ARI @ LAD 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ARI @ LAD 9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762 ▲
OPS
.720
204 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +13.8% more
Arizona: 3.1 vs Los Angeles: 2.8
Hits (L5) +50.5% more
Los Angeles: 11.4 vs Arizona: 5.7
Total Bases (L5) +48.7% more
Los Angeles: 17.8 vs Arizona: 9.2
Home Runs (L5) +37.9% more
Los Angeles: 1.2 vs Arizona: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 2.0 2
ARI Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.7 / 11.4 11.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 1.2 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 7.7 5.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.2 / 17.8 19.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
85%TICKETS15%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAD
ARI
LAD
ML
54% 87-74
56% 92-73
54% 86-74
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 98-67
56% 89-71
43% 72-94
TTL
52% 80-73-8
48% 77-82-6
49% 73-77-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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