KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
24-38 | Road
8
MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
29-34 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
👤
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Strahm
#25 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Taylor Rogers
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Strahm | None-None | 3.93 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Taylor Rogers | None-None | 4.63 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.93 Ldr
ERA
4.63
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
50%
TWINS
50%
ROYALS
--
TWINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
KC By 1-2 runs
19.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.3%
MIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
MIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Minnesota
6
MINNESOTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Royals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Twins
Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Twins (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Twins (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u9.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 6, 2026
MIN @ KC
4 - 3
Aug 5, 2026
MIN @ KC
1 - 2
Aug 4, 2026
MIN @ KC
2 - 8
Jul 30, 2026
KC @ MIN
3 - 4
Jul 29, 2026
KC @ MIN
4 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Minnesota
MIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.56
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.403
.718
OPS
▲
.720
170
Home Runs
▲
187
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.2% more
Kansas City: 1.3
vs
Minnesota: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+23.1% more
Kansas City: 13.2
vs
Minnesota: 10.1
Hits (L5)
+8.3% more
Kansas City: 8.3
vs
Minnesota: 7.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.2%
Kansas City: 24.7%
vs
Minnesota: 24.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.0
8
MIN Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.9 / 0.2
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 8.3
9.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.3
4.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 10.1
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 13.2
24.0 / 16.0
Walks
4.9 / 3.3
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIN
KC
MIN
KC
ML
52%
84-78
55%
89-72
50%
80-81
56%
90-70
ATS
59%
95-67
57%
91-70
59%
95-66
58%
93-67
TTL
51%
78-75-9
58%
90-64-7
53%
80-72-9
54%
83-70-7
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