CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
36-27 | Road
1
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
36-25 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
David Bednar
#53 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Festa | None-None | 4.33 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| David Bednar | None-None | 4.32 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.33
ERA
Ldr 4.32
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
54%
YANKEES
46%
GUARDIANS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.4%
NYY By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
7
CLEVELAND
New York
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Cleveland
3
CLEVELAND
New York
6
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Yankees (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
C
Sim
o0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 10, 2026
NYY @ CLE
8 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
NYY @ CLE
3 - 2
Jun 8, 2026
NYY @ CLE
7 - 5
Jun 4, 2026
CLE @ NYY
1 - 2
Jun 3, 2026
CLE @ NYY
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.696
OPS
▲
1.041
162
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+33.0% more
Cleveland: 0.7
vs
New York: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+18.0% more
Cleveland: 17.1
vs
New York: 14.0
Hits (L5)
+17.2% more
Cleveland: 9.6
vs
New York: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
7.0
1
NYY Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 9.6
5.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.3
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 9.8
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.0 / 17.1
6.0 / 2.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.5
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
87-79-0
(52.4%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
81-84-1
O: 49.1% / U: 50.9%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CLE
NYY
CLE
ML
47%
76-85
54%
87-75
52%
85-77
49%
80-83
ATS
59%
95-66
57%
93-69
53%
86-76
58%
95-68
TTL
53%
81-73-7
56%
89-71-2
53%
82-72-7
44%
70-90-2
Contextual Game News
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Guardians Outslug White Sox in Game 4 to Force Decisive ALDS Gam…
White Sox Collapse in Game 4 Sets Up Winner-Take-All Game 5
Jose Ramirez Ignites Guardians' Comeback, Forces Game 5 vs. Whit…
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