SAN DIEGO
PADRESSD
32-28 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
32-29 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Wandy Peralta
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jose Alvarado
#46 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wandy Peralta | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Jose Alvarado | None-None | 5.91 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
5.91
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
17%
PHILLIES
83%
PADRES
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
15%
Under 0
85%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)
SD By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SD By 3-4 runs
18.4%
PHI By 1-2 runs
13.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
San Diego
6
SAN DIEGO
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
San Diego
4
SAN DIEGO
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Padres
Loss
17% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Padres (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim
o0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
SD @ PHI
4 - 6
Jun 3, 2026
SD @ PHI
2 - 3
Jun 2, 2026
SD @ PHI
2 - 3
May 27, 2026
PHI @ SD
3 - 0
May 26, 2026
PHI @ SD
4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego
SD
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
2
Games Played
2
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.328
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.362
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.563
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.438
.925
▲
OPS
.724
4
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+41.7% more
San Diego: 6.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Walks (L5)
+37.3% more
San Diego: 3.1
vs
Philadelphia: 1.9
OPS (Season)
+20.1%
San Diego: 92.5%
vs
Philadelphia: 72.4%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+12.5%
San Diego: 56.3%
vs
Philadelphia: 43.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SD Score
6.0
4
PHI Score
4.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.2
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.0 / 6.5
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 6.2
10.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
12.4 / 9.7
14.0 / 10.0
Walks
1.9 / 3.1
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD
Advantage
94-74-0
(56.0%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD
Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.2
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SD
PHI
SD
ML
59%
97-67
51%
85-83
49%
80-84
51%
85-82
ATS
65%
107-57
54%
91-77
51%
83-81
55%
92-75
TTL
57%
88-67-9
51%
82-80-6
51%
78-76-9
54%
86-74-6
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