PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
33-29 | Road
5
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
28-35 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Carmen Mlodzinski
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Abreu
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carmen Mlodzinski | None-None | 3.66 | -- | 4.0 | 3 |
| Bryan Abreu | None-None | 7.52 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.66 Ldr
ERA
7.52
--
WHIP
--
4.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
54%
ASTROS
46%
PIRATES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Pittsburgh)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PIT -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PIT)
PIT By 1-2 runs
18.4%
PIT By 3-4 runs
19.6%
HOU By 1-2 runs
10.6%
HOU By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
B
Sim
u8.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
PIT @ HOU
5 - 1
Jun 3, 2026
PIT @ HOU
9 - 11
Jun 2, 2026
PIT @ HOU
10 - 6
Jun 5, 2025
HOU @ PIT
8 - 2
Jun 4, 2025
HOU @ PIT
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.734
▲
OPS
.582
186
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+59.3% more
Pittsburgh: 1.2
vs
Houston: 0.5
Home Runs (L5)
+50.2% more
Pittsburgh: 2.3
vs
Houston: 1.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+36.6% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
6.0
5
HOU Score
3.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.2
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 11.1
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 2.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.6 / 11.3
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
15.3 / 19.2
13.0 / 15.0
Walks
5.2 / 3.7
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
PIT
HOU
PIT
ML
50%
81-82
52%
82-77
47%
77-87
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
91-72
54%
86-73
55%
90-74
50%
81-82
TTL
45%
70-84-9
47%
72-81-6
45%
69-86-9
50%
79-78-6
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