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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

29-33  |  Road

8
FINAL
Thu, Jun 4 • 1:35 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

26-34  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Andrew Kittredge
STARTING PITCHER

Andrew Kittredge

#39 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jovani Moran
STARTING PITCHER

Jovani Moran

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Andrew Kittredge None-None 7.11 -- 1.0 1
Jovani Moran None-None 3.00 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
7.11 ERA Ldr 3.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
58%
📊
RED SOX
42%
ORIOLES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Boston)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

30.9%

Red Sox Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BAL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

BOS By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BOS By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
5
BALTIMORE
7
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
7
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Sox Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim o10.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 BOS @ BAL 3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 BOS @ BAL 5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Boston BOS
161 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.711 ▲
OPS
.409
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +40.1% more
Boston: 9.8 vs Baltimore: 7.0
Total Bases (L5) +24.4% more
Boston: 17.5 vs Baltimore: 14.1
Hits (L5) +22.0% more
Boston: 11.0 vs Baltimore: 9.0
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 5.0 8
BOS Score 7.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.0 / 9.0 7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.8 / 7.0 8.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 17.5 / 14.1 11.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.0 / 2.9 6.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
12%MONEY88%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
74%MONEY26%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BAL
BOS
BAL
ML
50% 80-80
53% 83-73
47% 76-87
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-67
61% 95-60-1
48% 79-84
57% 90-68-1
TTL
46% 72-83-5
54% 81-70-5
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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