KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
23-38 | Road
5
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
31-29 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Alex Lange
#56 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tejay Antone
#70 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Lange | None-None | 4.33 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Tejay Antone | None-None | 4.35 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.33 Ldr
ERA
4.35
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
42%
REDS
58%
ROYALS
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cincinnati)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
KC By 1-2 runs
13.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
7.8%
CIN By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CIN By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Cincinnati
6
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Kansas City
4
KANSAS CITY
Cincinnati
4.1
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Reds
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Reds
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Reds (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim
o8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 3, 2026
KC @ CIN
5 - 2
Jun 2, 2026
KC @ CIN
3 - 4
Jun 1, 2026
KC @ CIN
9 - 2
May 28, 2025
CIN @ KC
2 - 3
May 27, 2025
CIN @ KC
7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.316
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.718
▲
OPS
.699
170
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+68.7% more
Cincinnati: 5.8
vs
Kansas City: 3.4
Home Runs (L5)
+68.0% more
Cincinnati: 1.7
vs
Kansas City: 1.0
Home Runs (Season)
+25.3% more
Cincinnati: 213.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Hits (L5)
+18.8% more
Kansas City: 8.0
vs
Cincinnati: 6.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.0
5
CIN Score
6.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 8.0
8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 1.0
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.7
13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 12.3
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
5.8 / 3.4
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
KC
CIN
KC
ML
55%
88-71
55%
89-72
49%
79-81
56%
90-70
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
58%
93-67
TTL
53%
81-73-5
58%
90-64-7
54%
83-72-5
54%
83-70-7
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