CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
35-27 | Road
5
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
36-24 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Paul Blackburn
#58 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.83 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Paul Blackburn | None-None | 3.12 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.83 Ldr
ERA
3.12
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
50%
YANKEES
50%
GUARDIANS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYY)
CLE By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CLE By 3-4 runs
10.6%
NYY By 1-2 runs
19.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
New York
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Yankees
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 10, 2026
NYY @ CLE
8 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
NYY @ CLE
3 - 2
Jun 8, 2026
NYY @ CLE
7 - 5
Jun 4, 2026
CLE @ NYY
1 - 2
Jun 3, 2026
CLE @ NYY
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.696
OPS
▲
1.041
162
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season)
+114.8% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Home Runs (L5)
+63.0% more
New York: 1.0
vs
Cleveland: 0.4
Slugging Pct (Season)
+21.4%
New York: 59.4%
vs
Cleveland: 38.0%
Batting Avg (Season)
+13.6%
New York: 37.5%
vs
Cleveland: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
4.0
5
NYY Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.5 / 9.9
5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.4
2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 9.7
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 15.2
13.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.2
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CLE
NYY
CLE
ML
47%
76-85
54%
87-74
52%
85-77
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-68
53%
86-76
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-7
55%
88-71-2
53%
82-72-7
43%
69-90-2
Contextual Game News
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