DETROIT
TIGERSDET
24-38 | Road
7
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
36-22 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Drew Anderson
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Anderson | None-None | 3.92 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Mason Englert | None-None | 4.71 | -- | 5.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.92 Ldr
ERA
4.71
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
63%
RAYS
38%
TIGERS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
18.4%
TB By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
7
DETROIT
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Loss
68% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Rays (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim
u8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
TB @ DET
3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026
TB @ DET
1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
TB @ DET
4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026
DET @ TB
7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026
DET @ TB
8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.720
OPS
▲
.728
181
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+60.3% more
Detroit: 2.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+38.0% more
Detroit: 18.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 11.6
Hits (L5)
+21.0% more
Detroit: 8.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+13.7% more
Detroit: 7.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
7.0
7
TB Score
5.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.8
4.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 2.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 7.9
4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 18.7
7.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.1
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
DET
TB
DET
ML
58%
95-68
54%
86-73
58%
95-68
54%
87-73
ATS
60%
97-66
64%
101-58
55%
90-73
57%
91-69
TTL
47%
73-81-9
46%
69-81-9
51%
78-75-10
46%
69-81-10
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