TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
29-32 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
41-20 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Corbin
#46 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Lee
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Corbin | None-None | 3.98 | -- | 5.0 | 1 |
| Dylan Lee | None-None | 1.26 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.98
ERA
Ldr 1.26
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
41%
BRAVES
59%
BLUE JAYS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
53%
Under 0
47%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATL -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.6%
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Atlanta
6
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Braves
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
65% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
B
Sim
Braves (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
TOR @ ATL
7 - 2
Jun 3, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 7
Jun 2, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 4
Apr 16, 2025
ATL @ TOR
1 - 3
Apr 15, 2025
ATL @ TOR
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.692
OPS
▲
.757
152
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+76.0% more
Atlanta: 1.8
vs
Toronto: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.1% more
Atlanta: 9.4
vs
Toronto: 7.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+25.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+13.0% more
Atlanta: 0.6
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.0
3
ATL Score
6.0
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 8.8
9.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 1.0
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 7.3
8.0 / 1.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 13.9
17.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.1 / 4.2
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TOR
ATL
TOR
ML
46%
77-90
46%
74-87
54%
90-78
50%
80-80
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
90-71
52%
87-81
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
80-76-5
49%
76-80-11
45%
70-85-5
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