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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

29-32  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Jun 3 • 6:45 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

25-34  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Grant Wolfram
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Wolfram

#48 | Relief Pitcher
@
Payton Tolle
STARTING PITCHER

Payton Tolle

#70 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grant Wolfram None-None 3.78 -- 1.0 2
Payton Tolle None-None 2.28 -- 6.0 5
None-None W-L None-None
3.78 ERA Ldr 2.28
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
73%
📊
RED SOX
27%
ORIOLES --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

40.1%

Red Sox Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)

BAL By 1-2 runs

19.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

16.3%

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.3%

BOS By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
5
BALTIMORE
4
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
BALTIMORE
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Orioles Loss
73% Win Prob
B
Sim Red Sox Win
63% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim Red Sox (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim o8.5 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 BOS @ BAL 3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026 BOS @ BAL 5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026 BOS @ BAL 1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026 BOS @ BAL 6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026 BAL @ BOS 5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
Boston BOS
161 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.711 ▲
OPS
.409
199 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +77.6% more
Baltimore: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +62.7% more
Baltimore: 1.5 vs Boston: 0.6
OPS (Season) +30.2%
Baltimore: 71.1% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 5.0 1
BOS Score 4.0 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.0 / 9.1 15.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.5 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 11.2 / 7.0 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 15.1 25.0 / 12.0
Walks 2.5 / 2.9 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BAL
BOS
BAL
ML
50% 80-80
53% 83-73
47% 76-87
57% 90-69
ATS
58% 93-67
61% 95-60-1
48% 79-84
57% 90-68-1
TTL
46% 72-83-5
54% 81-70-5
47% 74-83-6
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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