Home / MLB Projections MLB / Dodgers @ Diamondbacks LAD @ ARI

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

39-22  |  Road

7
FINAL
Wed, Jun 3 • 9:40 PM ET
Chase Field
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

32-28  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jack Dreyer
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Dreyer

#86 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jonathan Loaisiga
STARTING PITCHER

Jonathan Loaisiga

#43 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Dreyer None-None 2.66 -- 1.0 --
Jonathan Loaisiga None-None 3.13 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.66 Ldr ERA 3.13
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
DODGERS
58%
📊
DIAMONDBACKS
42%
DODGERS --
DIAMONDBACKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
ARIZONA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Arizona)
DodgersLAD (-3.5) 0 DiamondbacksARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Dodgers Cover

40.1%

Diamondbacks Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ARI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARI)

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5
LOS ANGELES
6
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
6
LOS ANGELES
4
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Win
64% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
C
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 4
Aug 8, 2026 LAD @ ARI 2 - 1
Aug 7, 2026 LAD @ ARI 3 - 4
Jul 12, 2026 ARI @ LAD 5 - 3
Jul 11, 2026 ARI @ LAD 9 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Los Angeles LAD
vs
Arizona ARI
162
Games Played
162
4.94 ▲
Runs / Game
4.56
.257 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.338 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.318
.424 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.762 ▲
OPS
.720
204 ▲
Home Runs
166
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +29.5% more
Los Angeles: 3.2 vs Arizona: 2.2
Total Bases (L5) +24.8% more
Los Angeles: 16.3 vs Arizona: 12.2
Home Runs (Season) +18.6% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Arizona: 166.0
Hits (L5) +18.2% more
Los Angeles: 9.2 vs Arizona: 7.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAD Score 5.0 7
ARI Score 6.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 7.5 / 9.2 2.0 / 16.0
Home Runs 1.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 7.0 6.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 12.2 / 16.3 3.0 / 21.0
Walks 2.2 / 3.2 5.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
93%MONEY7%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAD
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
LAD
ARI
LAD
ML
54% 87-74
56% 92-73
54% 86-74
48% 79-87
ATS
57% 91-70
59% 98-67
56% 89-71
43% 72-94
TTL
52% 80-73-8
48% 77-82-6
49% 73-77-9
44% 70-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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