PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
33-28 | Road
9
HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
27-35 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Gregory Soto
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Hader
#71 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregory Soto | None-None | 2.86 | -- | -- | -- |
| Josh Hader | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.86
ERA
Ldr 0.00
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PIRATES
59%
ASTROS
41%
PIRATES
--
ASTROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around HOU +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
PIT By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
16.3%
HOU By 1-2 runs
16.3%
HOU By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Pittsburgh
6
PITTSBURGH
Houston
5
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Houston
3
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Pirates
Loss
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Astros (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
C
Sim
Pirates (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
C
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
PIT @ HOU
5 - 1
Jun 3, 2026
PIT @ HOU
9 - 11
Jun 2, 2026
PIT @ HOU
10 - 6
Jun 5, 2025
HOU @ PIT
8 - 2
Jun 4, 2025
HOU @ PIT
0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Pittsburgh
PIT
vs
Houston
HOU
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.73
▲
Runs / Game
3.00
.253
▲
Avg (AVG)
.169
.330
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.404
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.354
.734
▲
OPS
.582
186
▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+97.8% more
Pittsburgh: 186.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Home Runs (L5)
+50.6% more
Pittsburgh: 2.4
vs
Houston: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+36.7% more
Pittsburgh: 18.8
vs
Houston: 11.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+36.6% more
Pittsburgh: 4.7
vs
Houston: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PIT Score
6.0
9
HOU Score
5.0
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.9
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.2 / 10.7
14.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.4
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 10.9
11.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.9 / 18.8
22.0 / 20.0
Walks
4.8 / 3.6
6.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
HOU
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
PIT
HOU
PIT
ML
50%
81-82
52%
82-77
47%
77-87
52%
85-78
ATS
56%
91-72
54%
86-73
55%
90-74
50%
81-82
TTL
45%
70-84-9
47%
72-81-6
45%
69-86-9
50%
79-78-6
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