Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Nationals MIA @ WSH

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

27-34  |  Road

7
FINAL
Tue, Jun 2 • 6:45 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

31-30  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Calvin Faucher
STARTING PITCHER

Calvin Faucher

#53 | Relief Pitcher
@
Miles Mikolas
STARTING PITCHER

Miles Mikolas

#36 | SP
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Calvin Faucher None-None 4.30 -- 1.0 2
Miles Mikolas None-None 6.39 -- 6.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
4.30 Ldr ERA 6.39
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 6.0
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
50%
📊
NATIONALS
50%
MARLINS --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 47%
Under 0 53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

69.1%

Nationals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.6%

MIA By 3-4 runs

18.4%

WSH By 1-2 runs

13.6%

WSH By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
MIAMI
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
MIAMI
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
62% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Nationals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2026 MIA @ WSH 3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026 MIA @ WSH 6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026 MIA @ WSH 4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026 MIA @ WSH 2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026 WSH @ MIA 2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
Washington WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲ 5.07
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.727
OPS
▲ .744
168
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +62.0% more
Miami: 0.9 vs Washington: 0.3
On-Base Pct (Season) +0.5%
Miami: 32.6% vs Washington: 32.1%
Batting Avg (Season) +0.3%
Miami: 24.9% vs Washington: 24.6%
Walks (L5) +49.6% more
Washington: 4.1 vs Miami: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 6.0 7
WSH Score 4.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.1 / 7.7 7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.2 0.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 7.9 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 13.5 9.0 / 20.0
Walks 4.1 / 2.8 5.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
11%MONEY89%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57% 92-69
48% 78-84
54% 87-74
55% 88-72
ATS
58% 93-68
56% 91-71
57% 91-70
54% 86-74
TTL
50% 77-78-6
56% 88-69-5
42% 65-90-6
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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