Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Reds KC @ CIN

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

23-37  |  Road

3
FINAL
Tue, Jun 2 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

30-29  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brock Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Brock Burke

#49 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Lucas Erceg None-None 6.45 -- 1.0 2
Brock Burke None-None 3.49 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.45 ERA Ldr 3.49
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
45%
📊
REDS
55%
ROYALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cincinnati)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

40.1%

Reds Cover

59.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CIN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

KC By 1-2 runs

16.3%

KC By 3-4 runs

10.6%

CIN By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

16.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Reds Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Win
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim u9.0 Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 3, 2026 KC @ CIN 5 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 KC @ CIN 3 - 4
Jun 1, 2026 KC @ CIN 9 - 2
May 28, 2025 CIN @ KC 2 - 3
May 27, 2025 CIN @ KC 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.718 ▲
OPS
.699
170
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +25.3% more
Cincinnati: 213.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Walks (L5) +12.6% more
Cincinnati: 4.7 vs Kansas City: 4.1
Home Runs (L5) +32.2% more
Kansas City: 1.5 vs Cincinnati: 1.0
Strikeouts (L5) +28.8% more
Kansas City: 9.0 vs Cincinnati: 6.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.0 3
CIN Score 5.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 9.5 4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 9.0 11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 13.3 / 15.9 13.0 / 5.0
Walks 4.7 / 4.1 8.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
35%MONEY65%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
KC
CIN
KC
ML
55% 88-71
55% 89-72
49% 79-81
56% 90-70
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
50% 80-80
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 81-73-5
58% 90-64-7
54% 83-72-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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