Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Phillies SD @ PHI

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

32-26  |  Road

2
FINAL
Tue, Jun 2 • 6:40 PM ET
Citizens Bank Park
View Odds Details →

PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

30-29  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Bradgley Rodriguez
STARTING PITCHER

Bradgley Rodriguez

#72 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Bradgley Rodriguez None-None 1.57 -- 1.0 --
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.45 -- 1.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
1.57 ERA Ldr 1.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
31%
📊
PHILLIES
69%
PADRES --
PHILLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Philadelphia)
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 PhilliesPHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

15.9%

Phillies Cover

84.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

SD By 1-2 runs

7.8%

SD By 3-4 runs

3.5%

PHI By 1-2 runs

16.3%

PHI By 3-4 runs

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4
SAN DIEGO
8
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
4
SAN DIEGO
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Phillies Win
69% Win Prob
C
Sim Phillies Win
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Phillies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -4.0
D
Sim Phillies (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim o8.0 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 4, 2026 SD @ PHI 4 - 6
Jun 3, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
Jun 2, 2026 SD @ PHI 2 - 3
May 27, 2026 PHI @ SD 3 - 0
May 26, 2026 PHI @ SD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Philadelphia PHI
2
Games Played
2
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.438
.925 ▲
OPS
.724
4 ▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5) +49.1% more
Philadelphia: 8.0 vs San Diego: 5.4
Home Runs (L5) +13.4% more
Philadelphia: 1.4 vs San Diego: 1.2
Runs per Game (Season) +41.7% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Walks (L5) +31.8% more
San Diego: 3.4 vs Philadelphia: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 4.0 2
PHI Score 8.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 5.3 / 6.6 9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.2 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 5.4 12.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.0 / 11.0 12.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.3 / 3.4 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
SD
PHI
SD
ML
59% 97-67
51% 85-83
49% 80-84
51% 85-82
ATS
65% 107-57
54% 91-77
51% 83-81
55% 92-75
TTL
57% 88-67-9
51% 82-80-6
51% 78-76-9
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
si 0 minutes ago
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 minute ago
Dodgers Outlast Braves in NLDS Game 4, Inch Closer to Three-Peat
hawaiitribune_herald 12 hours, 4 minutes ago
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
newsweek 17 hours, 45 minutes ago