TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
29-31 | Road
3
ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
40-20 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 3.97 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 0.96 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.97
ERA
Ldr 0.96
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
50%
BRAVES
50%
BLUE JAYS
--
BRAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.4%
ATL By 1-2 runs
13.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Atlanta
5
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim
Braves
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Braves (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim
o7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 4, 2026
TOR @ ATL
7 - 2
Jun 3, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 7
Jun 2, 2026
TOR @ ATL
3 - 4
Apr 16, 2025
ATL @ TOR
1 - 3
Apr 15, 2025
ATL @ TOR
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Atlanta
ATL
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
5.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.324
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.433
.692
OPS
▲
.757
152
▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+99.3% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Atlanta: 1.0
Walks (L5)
+51.3% more
Toronto: 5.3
vs
Atlanta: 2.6
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.4%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Atlanta: 23.3%
Home Runs (L5)
+115.0% more
Atlanta: 2.1
vs
Toronto: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
6.0
3
ATL Score
4.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 8.8
6.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 6.5
9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
15.6 / 14.3
12.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.6 / 5.3
1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
TOR
ATL
TOR
ML
46%
77-90
46%
74-87
54%
90-78
50%
80-80
ATS
57%
96-71
56%
90-71
52%
87-81
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
83-73-11
51%
80-76-5
49%
76-80-11
45%
70-85-5
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