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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

23-38  |  Road

8
FINAL
Tue, Jun 2 • 6:40 PM ET
Tropicana Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

36-21  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Jack Flaherty
STARTING PITCHER

Jack Flaherty

#9 | Starting Pitcher
@
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jack Flaherty None-None 5.31 -- 5.0 6
Bryan Baker None-None 2.13 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
5.31 ERA Ldr 2.13
-- WHIP --
5.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
6 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
50%
📊
RAYS
50%
TIGERS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

69.1%

Rays Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.4%

TB By 1-2 runs

13.6%

TB By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
DETROIT
3
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Rays (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 26, 2026 TB @ DET 3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026 TB @ DET 1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026 TB @ DET 4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026 DET @ TB 7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 DET @ TB 8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720
OPS
▲ .728
181 ▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +31.7% more
Detroit: 2.1 vs Tampa Bay: 1.4
Walks (L5) +23.0% more
Detroit: 3.7 vs Tampa Bay: 2.8
Total Bases (L5) +13.7% more
Detroit: 16.1 vs Tampa Bay: 13.9
Home Runs (Season) +6.6% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Tampa Bay: 169.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 5.0 8
TB Score 3.0 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.2 5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 2.1 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 6.8 6.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 13.9 / 16.1 7.0 / 24.0
Walks 2.8 / 3.7 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
DET
TB
DET
ML
58% 95-68
54% 86-73
58% 95-68
54% 87-73
ATS
60% 97-66
64% 101-58
55% 90-73
57% 91-69
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 69-81-9
51% 78-75-10
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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