CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
34-27 | Road
9
NEW YORK
YANKEESNYY
36-23 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ryan Yarbrough
#33 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Festa | None-None | 4.50 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Ryan Yarbrough | None-None | 3.48 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.50
ERA
Ldr 3.48
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
45%
YANKEES
55%
GUARDIANS
--
YANKEES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
18.4%
NYY By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYY By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Cleveland
7
CLEVELAND
New York
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Guardians
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Yankees
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Guardians (-1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Yankees (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 10, 2026
NYY @ CLE
8 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
NYY @ CLE
3 - 2
Jun 8, 2026
NYY @ CLE
7 - 5
Jun 4, 2026
CLE @ NYY
1 - 2
Jun 3, 2026
CLE @ NYY
5 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland
CLE
vs
New York
NYY
162
▲
Games Played
1
4.19
Runs / Game
▲
9.00
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.375
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.447
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.594
.696
OPS
▲
1.041
162
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.8% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
New York: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+67.3% more
Cleveland: 1.1
vs
New York: 0.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.5% more
Cleveland: 9.0
vs
New York: 7.3
Runs per Game (Season)
+114.8% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Cleveland: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CLE Score
7.0
9
NYY Score
5.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.2 / 8.9
8.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.1
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.3 / 9.0
12.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
15.8 / 12.3
12.0 / 21.0
Walks
3.6 / 3.4
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
95-71-0
(57.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYY
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.9
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
NYY
79-81-6
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYY
CLE
NYY
CLE
ML
47%
76-85
54%
87-74
52%
85-77
49%
80-82
ATS
59%
95-66
58%
93-68
53%
86-76
59%
95-67
TTL
53%
81-73-7
55%
88-71-2
53%
82-72-7
43%
69-90-2
Contextual Game News
CC Sabathia's Divided Playoff Heart: Brewers Advance, Yankees Ex…
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom