BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
28-32 | Road
4
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
25-33 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Greg Weissert
#57 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 0.68 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Greg Weissert | None-None | 3.96 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.68 Ldr
ERA
3.96
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
65%
RED SOX
35%
ORIOLES
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.3%
BAL By 3-4 runs
10.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Baltimore
6
BALTIMORE
Boston
7
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
35% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
A
Sim
Red Sox (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 13.0
C
Sim
o8.5
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
BOS @ BAL
3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
BOS @ BAL
5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
BOS @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026
BOS @ BAL
6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026
BAL @ BOS
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore
BAL
vs
Boston
BOS
161
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.234
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.314
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.711
▲
OPS
.409
199
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+88.4% more
Boston: 11.3
vs
Baltimore: 6.0
Hits (L5)
+21.6% more
Boston: 11.0
vs
Baltimore: 9.1
Total Bases (L5)
+13.2% more
Boston: 16.6
vs
Baltimore: 14.7
Home Runs (Season)
+99.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BAL Score
6.0
4
BOS Score
7.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.0 / 9.1
5.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 1.3
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 6.0
11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 14.7
8.0 / 16.0
Walks
2.7 / 3.4
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
BAL
BOS
BAL
ML
50%
80-80
53%
83-73
47%
76-87
57%
90-69
ATS
58%
93-67
61%
95-60-1
48%
79-84
57%
90-68-1
TTL
46%
72-83-5
54%
81-70-5
47%
74-83-6
51%
78-75-6
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