NEW YORK
METSNYM
26-33 | Road
2
SEATTLE
MARINERSSEA
31-29 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Devin Williams
#38 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Gabe Speier
#55 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Williams | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Gabe Speier | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.40
ERA
Ldr 2.45
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
METS
35%
MARINERS
65%
METS
--
MARINERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
47%
Under 0
53%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Seattle)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SEA -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)
NYM By 1-2 runs
16.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
10.6%
SEA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
SEA By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Seattle
5
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mariners
Win
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Mariners
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Mariners (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
o7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 3, 2026
NYM @ SEA
7 - 1
Jun 2, 2026
NYM @ SEA
3 - 8
Jun 1, 2026
NYM @ SEA
2 - 3
Aug 17, 2025
SEA @ NYM
3 - 7
Aug 16, 2025
SEA @ NYM
1 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Seattle
SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.239
▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.395
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.705
▲
OPS
.693
204
▲
Home Runs
182
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+29.8% more
Seattle: 10.8
vs
New York: 8.3
Total Bases (L5)
+27.6% more
Seattle: 19.9
vs
New York: 15.6
Home Runs (L5)
+23.9% more
Seattle: 2.6
vs
New York: 2.1
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.4%
Seattle: 31.4%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.0
2
SEA Score
5.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.8 / 8.3
4.0 / 2.0
Home Runs
2.6 / 2.1
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 9.2
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
19.9 / 15.6
10.0 / 8.0
Walks
2.6 / 4.7
0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
NYM
SEA
NYM
ML
50%
81-81
50%
79-80
52%
85-77
48%
76-83
ATS
60%
98-64
58%
93-66
59%
95-67
49%
78-81
TTL
56%
85-67-10
55%
80-66-13
53%
81-71-10
51%
74-72-13
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