MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
26-34 | Road
7
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
31-29 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Pete Fairbanks
#29 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Cavalli
#24 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Fairbanks | None-None | 7.04 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Cade Cavalli | None-None | 3.62 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.04
ERA
Ldr 3.62
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
40%
NATIONALS
60%
MARLINS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
13.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
MIA By 1-2 runs
10.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
5.4%
WSH By 1-2 runs
18.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5
MIAMI
Washington
8
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Loss
60% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Sim
Nationals (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o8.0
Win
Proj Total: 13.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 31, 2026
MIA @ WSH
3 - 6
Aug 30, 2026
MIA @ WSH
6 - 2
Aug 29, 2026
MIA @ WSH
4 - 5
Aug 28, 2026
MIA @ WSH
2 - 9
Aug 23, 2026
WSH @ MIA
2 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.41
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.727
OPS
▲
.744
168
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+136.0% more
Washington: 1.6
vs
Miami: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+53.5% more
Washington: 14.9
vs
Miami: 9.7
Hits (L5)
+31.1% more
Washington: 8.6
vs
Miami: 6.6
Home Runs (Season)
+25.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.0
7
WSH Score
8.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.6 / 6.6
7.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.3
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 8.4
10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
14.9 / 9.7
10.0 / 21.0
Walks
4.2 / 3.6
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
MIA
WSH
MIA
ML
57%
92-69
48%
78-84
54%
87-74
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-68
56%
91-71
57%
91-70
54%
86-74
TTL
50%
77-78-6
56%
88-69-5
42%
65-90-6
53%
82-73-5
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