Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Reds KC @ CIN

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

22-37  |  Road

9
FINAL
Mon, Jun 1 • 7:10 PM ET
Great American Ball Park
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

REDSCIN

30-28  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Alex Lange
STARTING PITCHER

Alex Lange

#56 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Ferguson
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Ferguson

#46 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Alex Lange None-None 4.50 -- 1.0 2
Caleb Ferguson None-None 0.00 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
4.50 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
30%
📊
REDS
70%
ROYALS --
REDS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RedsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

69.1%

Reds Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

CIN By 1-2 runs

13.6%

CIN By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
KANSAS CITY
4
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
30% Win Prob
D
Sim Reds Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Reds (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o9.5 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 3, 2026 KC @ CIN 5 - 2
Jun 2, 2026 KC @ CIN 3 - 4
Jun 1, 2026 KC @ CIN 9 - 2
May 28, 2025 CIN @ KC 2 - 3
May 27, 2025 CIN @ KC 7 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Cincinnati CIN
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.718 ▲
OPS
.699
170
Home Runs
▲ 213
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +48.0% more
Kansas City: 0.8 vs Cincinnati: 0.3
Strikeouts (L5) +18.5% more
Kansas City: 7.5 vs Cincinnati: 6.1
Runs per Game (Season) +3.5% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season) +1.9%
Kansas City: 71.8% vs Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 6.0 9
CIN Score 4.0 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.8 6.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 0.7 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.1 / 7.5 7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 11.8 10.0 / 24.0
Walks 4.5 / 3.2 5.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
16%MONEY84%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
75-87-0 (46.3%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CIN Advantage
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
KC
CIN
KC
ML
55% 88-71
55% 89-72
49% 79-81
56% 90-70
ATS
54% 86-73
57% 91-70
50% 80-80
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 81-73-5
58% 90-64-7
54% 83-72-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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