DETROIT
TIGERSDET
22-38 | Road
10
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
36-20 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 3.65 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.93 Ldr
ERA
3.65
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
35%
RAYS
65%
TIGERS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TB -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
DET By 1-2 runs
13.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
7.8%
TB By 1-2 runs
19.6%
TB By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rays
Loss
65% Win Prob
C
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim
Rays (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim
u8.0
Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 26, 2026
TB @ DET
3 - 0
Aug 25, 2026
TB @ DET
1 - 4
Aug 24, 2026
TB @ DET
4 - 1
Jun 3, 2026
DET @ TB
7 - 2
Jun 2, 2026
DET @ TB
8 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.46
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.320
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.720
OPS
▲
.728
181
▲
Home Runs
169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+83.2% more
Tampa Bay: 2.7
vs
Detroit: 1.5
Errors (L5)
+70.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.9
vs
Detroit: 0.2
Total Bases (L5)
+57.5% more
Tampa Bay: 12.9
vs
Detroit: 8.2
Home Runs (L5)
+51.0% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1
vs
Detroit: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
3.0
10
TB Score
5.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 5.4
8.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 0.6
2.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
6.8 / 6.3
8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 8.2
16.0 / 32.0
Walks
2.7 / 1.5
3.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
DET
TB
DET
ML
58%
95-68
54%
86-73
58%
95-68
54%
87-73
ATS
60%
97-66
64%
101-58
55%
90-73
57%
91-69
TTL
47%
73-81-9
46%
69-81-9
51%
78-75-10
46%
69-81-10
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