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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

30-28  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, May 31 • 4:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

37-21  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Chase Shugart
STARTING PITCHER

Chase Shugart

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Edgardo Henriquez
STARTING PITCHER

Edgardo Henriquez

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Chase Shugart None-None 2.33 -- 1.2 2
Edgardo Henriquez None-None 3.43 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.33 Ldr ERA 3.43
-- WHIP --
1.2 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
38%
📊
DODGERS
63%
PHILLIES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 16%
Under 0 84%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Los Angeles)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

30.9%

Dodgers Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around LAD -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

PHI By 1-2 runs

13.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

7.8%

LAD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

LAD By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
6
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dodgers Win
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Dodgers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Dodgers (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u9.0 Loss
Proj Total: 8.0
A
Sim o9.0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 LAD @ PHI 9 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 LAD @ PHI 2 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 LAD @ PHI 7 - 10
May 31, 2026 PHI @ LAD 1 - 9
May 30, 2026 PHI @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.724
OPS
▲ .762
3
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +6700.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Hits (L5) +59.8% more
Los Angeles: 8.7 vs Philadelphia: 5.4
Total Bases (L5) +59.4% more
Los Angeles: 16.7 vs Philadelphia: 10.5
Runs per Game (Season) +41.1% more
Los Angeles: 4.9 vs Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 3.0 1
LAD Score 5.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.7 / 5.4 13.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.5 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 8.5 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.7 / 10.5 26.0 / 9.0
Walks 1.9 / 1.5 4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
PHI
LAD
PHI
ML
56% 92-73
59% 97-67
48% 79-87
49% 80-84
ATS
59% 98-67
65% 107-57
43% 72-94
51% 83-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
57% 88-67-9
44% 70-90-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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