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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

22-36  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, May 31 • 2:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

27-31  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Steven Cruz
STARTING PITCHER

Steven Cruz

#64 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jacob Latz
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Latz

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Steven Cruz None-None 8.36 -- 1.0 1
Jacob Latz None-None 2.08 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
8.36 ERA Ldr 2.08
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
33%
📊
RANGERS
67%
ROYALS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
14.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Texas)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

30.9%

Rangers Cover

69.1%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

KC By 1-2 runs

13.6%

KC By 3-4 runs

7.8%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.6%

TEX By 3-4 runs

18.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6
KANSAS CITY
8
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Rangers Win
67% Win Prob
C
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
B
Sim Rangers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Sim o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 11, 2026 TEX @ KC 4 - 2
Jun 10, 2026 TEX @ KC 6 - 4
Jun 9, 2026 TEX @ KC 3 - 5
May 31, 2026 KC @ TEX 3 - 6
May 30, 2026 KC @ TEX 6 - 7
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.718 ▲
OPS
.713
170
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +132.0% more
Texas: 1.9 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Total Bases (L5) +50.2% more
Texas: 16.8 vs Kansas City: 11.2
Walks (L5) +41.7% more
Texas: 3.3 vs Kansas City: 2.3
Hits (L5) +22.6% more
Texas: 9.3 vs Kansas City: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 6.0 3
TEX Score 8.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.3 / 7.6 10.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.6 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 6.8 / 7.2 12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.8 / 11.2 15.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.3 4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
KC
TEX
KC
ML
53% 86-76
55% 89-72
57% 91-70
56% 90-70
ATS
57% 92-70
57% 91-70
61% 98-63
58% 93-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
58% 90-64-7
55% 81-66-14
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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