MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
26-33 | Road
1
NEW YORK
METSNYM
25-33 | Home
10
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Gibson
#58 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nolan McLean
#26 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cade Gibson | None-None | 7.27 | -- | 1.1 | 1 |
| Nolan McLean | None-None | 4.21 | -- | 5.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
7.27
ERA
Ldr 4.21
--
WHIP
--
1.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
53%
METS
47%
MARLINS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.6%
MIA By 3-4 runs
18.4%
NYM By 1-2 runs
13.6%
NYM By 3-4 runs
7.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
7
MIAMI
New York
5
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
New York
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Marlins
Loss
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Marlins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Mets (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 12.0
D
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727
▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+36.0% more
Miami: 0.9
vs
New York: 0.5
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+2.2%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
New York: 70.5%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+1.6%
Miami: 32.6%
vs
New York: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
7.0
1
NYM Score
5.0
10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 8.4
9.0 / 3.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 0.4
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
11.3 / 7.6
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
14.4 / 12.0
18.0 / 5.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.5
6.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50%
79-80
48%
78-84
48%
76-83
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
91-71
49%
78-81
54%
86-74
TTL
55%
80-66-13
56%
88-69-5
51%
74-72-13
53%
82-73-5
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