BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
24-33 | Road
9
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
34-26 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tim Herrin
#29 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 0.48 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Tim Herrin | None-None | 3.32 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.48 Ldr
ERA
3.32
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
42%
GUARDIANS
58%
RED SOX
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
BOS By 1-2 runs
10.6%
BOS By 3-4 runs
5.4%
CLE By 1-2 runs
18.4%
CLE By 3-4 runs
19.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Boston
2
BOSTON
Cleveland
4
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Loss
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
C
Sim
Guardians (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.0
Win
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Sim
u7.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CLE @ BOS
1 - 0
Sep 23, 2026
CLE @ BOS
0 - 1
Sep 22, 2026
CLE @ BOS
3 - 2
May 31, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 4
May 30, 2026
BOS @ CLE
9 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Cleveland
CLE
2
Games Played
▲
162
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.239
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.316
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.380
.409
OPS
▲
.696
2
Home Runs
▲
162
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+8000.0% more
Cleveland: 162.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+319.0% more
Cleveland: 4.2
vs
Boston: 1.0
Errors (L5)
+121.0% more
Cleveland: 1.7
vs
Boston: 0.5
OPS (Season)
+28.7%
Cleveland: 69.6%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
3.0
9
CLE Score
6.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.7 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.8 / 10.6
11.0 / 12.0
Home Runs
0.2 / 0.8
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 9.5
9.0 / 15.0
Total Bases
10.9 / 15.9
15.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.0 / 3.1
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BOS
CLE
BOS
ML
54%
87-74
50%
80-80
49%
80-82
47%
76-87
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-67
59%
95-67
48%
79-84
TTL
55%
88-71-2
46%
72-83-5
43%
69-90-2
47%
74-83-6
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