MINNESOTA
TWINSMIN
27-32 | Road
3
PITTSBURGH
PIRATESPIT
31-28 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mike Paredes
#53 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braxton Ashcraft
#35 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Paredes | None-None | 2.45 | -- | 3.2 | 3 |
| Braxton Ashcraft | None-None | 2.77 | -- | 6.0 | 11 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.45 Ldr
ERA
2.77
--
WHIP
--
3.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 11
AI Model Win Probability
TWINS
38%
PIRATES
63%
TWINS
--
PIRATES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Minnesota)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIN -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)
MIN By 1-2 runs
18.4%
MIN By 3-4 runs
19.6%
PIT By 1-2 runs
10.6%
PIT By 3-4 runs
5.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Minnesota
5
MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh
2
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
Minnesota
3
MINNESOTA
Pittsburgh
5
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Twins
Loss
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pirates
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Twins (-1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
B
Sim
Pirates (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 31, 2026
MIN @ PIT
3 - 9
May 30, 2026
MIN @ PIT
9 - 10
May 29, 2026
MIN @ PIT
5 - 6
Jul 13, 2025
PIT @ MIN
2 - 1
Jul 12, 2025
PIT @ MIN
4 - 12
Season Statistics Comparison
Minnesota
MIN
vs
Pittsburgh
PIT
162
Games Played
162
4.56
Runs / Game
▲
4.73
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲
.253
.317
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.330
.403
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.404
.720
OPS
▲
.734
187
▲
Home Runs
186
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+35.0% more
Minnesota: 1.0
vs
Pittsburgh: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+9.9% more
Minnesota: 4.8
vs
Pittsburgh: 4.3
Home Runs (L5)
+134.0% more
Pittsburgh: 2.1
vs
Minnesota: 0.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+28.1% more
Pittsburgh: 10.7
vs
Minnesota: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIN Score
5.0
3
PIT Score
2.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.3 / 8.5
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 0.7
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
10.7 / 8.4
14.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
17.6 / 13.9
15.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.3 / 4.8
0.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
Advantage
82-80-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: -0.4
ATS +/-:
PIT
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
88-64-10
O: 57.9% / U: 42.1%
Total +/-: +1.0
PIT
81-74-7
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PIT
MIN
PIT
MIN
ML
52%
82-77
52%
84-78
52%
85-78
50%
80-81
ATS
54%
86-73
59%
95-67
50%
81-82
59%
95-66
TTL
47%
72-81-6
51%
78-75-9
50%
79-78-6
53%
80-72-9
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