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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

32-27  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sun, May 31 • 7:20 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

30-26  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Ryan Rolison
STARTING PITCHER

Ryan Rolison

#33 | Relief Pitcher
@
Hunter Dobbins
STARTING PITCHER

Hunter Dobbins

#40 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ryan Rolison None-None 2.89 -- 2.0 --
Hunter Dobbins None-None 4.50 -- 3.2 4
None-None W-L None-None
2.89 Ldr ERA 4.50
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 3.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
50%
📊
CARDINALS
50%
CUBS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

69.1%

Cardinals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

STL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6
CHICAGO
4
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
6
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (+1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.374
OPS
▲ .691
0
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +33.2% more
Chicago: 10.3 vs St. Louis: 6.9
Total Bases (L5) +30.3% more
Chicago: 15.2 vs St. Louis: 10.6
Home Runs (L5) +15.0% more
Chicago: 1.0 vs St. Louis: 0.9
Walks (L5) +9.9% more
Chicago: 2.5 vs St. Louis: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 6.0 1
STL Score 4.0 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.2 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.9 / 10.3 8.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.6 / 7.1 8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 10.6 / 15.2 8.0 / 11.0
Walks 2.3 / 2.5 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53% 85-74
58% 93-68
52% 84-77
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 89-70
61% 97-63-1
53% 85-76
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 81-74-6
50% 76-75-10
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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