Home / MLB Projections MLB / Diamondbacks @ Mariners ARI @ SEA

ARIZONA

DIAMONDBACKSARI

31-26  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, May 31 • 4:10 PM ET
T-Mobile Park
View Odds Details →

SEATTLE

MARINERSSEA

30-29  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jonathan Loaisiga
STARTING PITCHER

Jonathan Loaisiga

#43 | Relief Pitcher
@
Bryce Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Bryce Miller

#50 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jonathan Loaisiga None-None 2.49 -- 0.1 --
Bryce Miller None-None 1.71 -- 5.0 6
None-None W-L None-None
2.49 ERA Ldr 1.71
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
DIAMONDBACKS
42%
📊
MARINERS
58%
DIAMONDBACKS --
MARINERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
SEATTLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
DiamondbacksARI (-3.5) 0 MarinersSEA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Diamondbacks Cover

40.1%

Mariners Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around SEA +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SEA)

ARI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

ARI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

SEA By 1-2 runs

16.3%

SEA By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
ARIZONA
5
SEATTLE
Simulated Score
3
ARIZONA
6
SEATTLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Diamondbacks Loss
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Mariners Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
B
Sim Mariners (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 31, 2026 ARI @ SEA 2 - 3
May 30, 2026 ARI @ SEA 1 - 5
May 29, 2026 ARI @ SEA 6 - 7
Jun 11, 2025 SEA @ ARI 2 - 5
Jun 10, 2025 SEA @ ARI 3 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
Arizona ARI
vs
Seattle SEA
162
Games Played
162
4.56 ▲
Runs / Game
4.10
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.233
.318 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.379
.720 ▲
OPS
.693
166
Home Runs
▲ 182
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +10.1% more
Arizona: 4.6 vs Seattle: 4.1
Errors (L5) +8.0% more
Arizona: 0.3 vs Seattle: 0.3
OPS (Season) +2.7%
Arizona: 72.0% vs Seattle: 69.3%
Slugging Pct (Season) +2.3%
Arizona: 40.2% vs Seattle: 37.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARI Score 6.0 2
SEA Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.3 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 10.7 / 7.7 11.0 / 3.0
Home Runs 2.9 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 5.8 9.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 21.4 / 11.1 17.0 / 4.0
Walks 2.4 / 1.4 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
53%MONEY47%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARI Advantage
86-76-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SEA
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARI Advantage
(52.5%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
SEA
(37.0%)
Margin: -0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ARI
71-85-6
O: 45.5% / U: 54.5% Total +/-: +0.3
SEA
86-68-8
O: 55.8% / U: 44.2% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SEA
ARI
SEA
ARI
ML
50% 81-81
54% 87-74
52% 85-77
54% 86-74
ATS
60% 98-64
57% 91-70
59% 95-67
56% 89-71
TTL
56% 85-67-10
52% 80-73-8
53% 81-71-10
49% 73-77-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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