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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

29-28  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, May 30 • 10:10 PM ET
Dodger Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

DODGERSLAD

37-20  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Tanner Scott
STARTING PITCHER

Tanner Scott

#66 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 1.53 -- 1.0 --
Tanner Scott None-None 2.19 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.53 Ldr ERA 2.19
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
32%
📊
DODGERS
68%
PHILLIES --
DODGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 25%
Under 0 75%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
LOS ANGELES
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 DodgersLAD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

40.1%

Dodgers Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around LAD +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LAD)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

16.3%

LAD By 1-2 runs

16.3%

LAD By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
PHILADELPHIA
5
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Win
32% Win Prob
D
Sim Dodgers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim Dodgers (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim o8.5 Loss
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 LAD @ PHI 9 - 5
Jul 21, 2026 LAD @ PHI 2 - 1
Jul 20, 2026 LAD @ PHI 7 - 10
May 31, 2026 PHI @ LAD 1 - 9
May 30, 2026 PHI @ LAD 4 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Los Angeles LAD
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.94
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .257
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .338
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.424
.724
OPS
▲ .762
3
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Slugging Pct (Season) +1.4%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Los Angeles: 42.4%
Home Runs (Season) +6700.0% more
Los Angeles: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +127.1% more
Los Angeles: 2.9 vs Philadelphia: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +96.1% more
Los Angeles: 19.1 vs Philadelphia: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.0 4
LAD Score 5.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.2 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.5 / 5.1 9.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 2.9 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.6 / 8.2 11.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 19.1 / 9.7 12.0 / 12.0
Walks 1.8 / 1.3 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
24%MONEY76%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
103-63-0 (62.1%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
LAD Advantage
(43.4%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
LAD
72-89-5
O: 44.7% / U: 55.3% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAD
PHI
LAD
PHI
ML
56% 92-73
59% 97-67
48% 79-87
49% 80-84
ATS
59% 98-67
65% 107-57
43% 72-94
51% 83-81
TTL
48% 77-82-6
57% 88-67-9
44% 70-90-6
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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