ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
39-19 | Road
5
CINCINNATI
REDSCIN
29-27 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Sam Moll
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 1.02 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Sam Moll | None-None | 2.52 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.02 Ldr
ERA
2.52
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
64%
REDS
36%
BRAVES
--
REDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CIN +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)
ATL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
ATL By 3-4 runs
16.3%
CIN By 1-2 runs
16.3%
CIN By 3-4 runs
10.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Cincinnati
3
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Atlanta
4
ATLANTA
Cincinnati
7
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Reds
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Reds (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
D
Sim
Reds (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u9.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
o9.5
Loss
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 24, 2026
CIN @ ATL
7 - 6
Sep 23, 2026
CIN @ ATL
2 - 3
Sep 22, 2026
CIN @ ATL
4 - 0
May 31, 2026
ATL @ CIN
4 - 6
May 30, 2026
ATL @ CIN
5 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Cincinnati
CIN
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.11
.233
▲
Avg (AVG)
.229
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.305
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.394
.757
▲
OPS
.699
1
Home Runs
▲
213
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+23.6% more
Atlanta: 9.2
vs
Cincinnati: 7.0
Home Runs (L5)
+20.6% more
Atlanta: 1.3
vs
Cincinnati: 1.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+17.8% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
Cincinnati: 4.1
OPS (Season)
+5.8%
Atlanta: 75.7%
vs
Cincinnati: 69.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
4.0
5
CIN Score
3.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.4 / 9.8
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.3
1.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 9.2
6.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
14.6 / 15.3
11.0 / 20.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.1
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
75-87-0
(46.3%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
CIN
(50.6%)
Margin: -1.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
CIN
84-74-4
O: 53.2% / U: 46.8%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
ATL
CIN
ATL
ML
55%
88-71
46%
77-90
49%
79-81
54%
90-78
ATS
54%
86-73
57%
96-71
50%
80-80
52%
87-81
TTL
53%
81-73-5
53%
83-73-11
54%
83-72-5
49%
76-80-11
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