Home / MLB Projections MLB / Padres @ Nationals SD @ WSH

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

32-24  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, May 30 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

29-29  |  Home

9
Probable Pitchers
Wandy Peralta
STARTING PITCHER

Wandy Peralta

#58 | Relief Pitcher
@
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Wandy Peralta None-None 2.73 -- 1.0 --
Clayton Beeter None-None 2.45 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
2.73 ERA Ldr 2.45
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
PADRES
45%
📊
NATIONALS
55%
PADRES --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
PadresSD (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Padres Cover

40.1%

Nationals Cover

59.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around WSH +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

SD By 1-2 runs

19.6%

SD By 3-4 runs

16.3%

WSH By 1-2 runs

16.3%

WSH By 3-4 runs

10.6%

AI Model Projected Score
6
SAN DIEGO
5
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
SAN DIEGO
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Padres Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: +1.0
A
Sim Nationals (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o7.5 Win
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Sim u7.5 Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 9
Sep 8, 2026 WSH @ SD 4 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 WSH @ SD 2 - 3
May 31, 2026 SD @ WSH 2 - 4
May 30, 2026 SD @ WSH 4 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
San Diego SD
vs
Washington WSH
2
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.328 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.362 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.563 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.423
.925 ▲
OPS
.744
4
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +19.9% more
San Diego: 4.0 vs Washington: 3.2
OPS (Season) +18.1%
San Diego: 92.5% vs Washington: 74.4%
Runs per Game (Season) +15.5% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs Washington: 5.1
Slugging Pct (Season) +14.0%
San Diego: 56.3% vs Washington: 42.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SD Score 6.0 4
WSH Score 5.0 9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.4 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.7 / 7.4 8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 1.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 6.4 / 6.3 9.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 14.7 / 11.6 12.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.2 / 4.0 8.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
SD
WSH
SD
ML
57% 92-69
51% 85-83
54% 87-74
51% 85-82
ATS
58% 93-68
54% 91-77
57% 91-70
55% 92-75
TTL
50% 77-78-6
51% 82-80-6
42% 65-90-6
54% 86-74-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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