TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
29-29 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
26-32 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Albert Suarez
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 0.29 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Albert Suarez | None-None | 2.61 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.29 Ldr
ERA
2.61
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
71%
ORIOLES
29%
BLUE JAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
14.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TOR By 1-2 runs
13.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
7.8%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.6%
BAL By 3-4 runs
18.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
6
TORONTO
Baltimore
8
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Baltimore
4
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
29% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
C
Sim
Orioles (+1.5)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o7.5
Win
Proj Total: 14.0
D
Sim
u7.5
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.692
OPS
▲
.711
152
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+40.5% more
Baltimore: 2.1
vs
Toronto: 1.5
Home Runs (Season)
+30.9% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Hits (L5)
+15.0% more
Baltimore: 9.4
vs
Toronto: 8.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.5% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
6.0
5
BAL Score
8.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.1
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.4 / 8.2
7.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.1 / 1.5
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.1 / 6.5
9.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
16.8 / 15.7
10.0 / 15.0
Walks
3.1 / 2.8
3.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TOR
BAL
TOR
ML
53%
83-73
46%
74-87
57%
90-69
50%
80-80
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
90-71
57%
90-68-1
49%
79-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-6
45%
70-85-5
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