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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

31-27  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, May 30 • 7:15 PM ET
Busch Stadium
View Odds Details →

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

30-25  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Jacob Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Webb

#71 | Relief Pitcher
@
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jacob Webb None-None 2.55 -- 1.0 1
Gordon Graceffo None-None 1.80 -- 1.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
2.55 ERA Ldr 1.80
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
41%
📊
CARDINALS
59%
CUBS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 CardinalsSTL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

69.1%

Cardinals Cover

30.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

18.4%

STL By 1-2 runs

13.6%

STL By 3-4 runs

7.8%

AI Model Projected Score
5
CHICAGO
3
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (+1.5) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Sim Cardinals (-1.5) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Sim u8.0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
St. Louis STL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.44
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .239
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .313
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .378
.374
OPS
▲ .691
0
Home Runs
▲ 167
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +31.7% more
Chicago: 2.8 vs St. Louis: 1.9
Hits (L5) +17.1% more
Chicago: 9.4 vs St. Louis: 7.8
Home Runs (Season) +16700.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +394.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.0 6
STL Score 3.0 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.3 3.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.8 / 9.4 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 1.0 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.3 / 7.1 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.4 / 13.8 5.0 / 18.0
Walks 1.9 / 2.8 3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
CHC
STL
CHC
ML
53% 85-74
58% 93-68
52% 84-77
51% 82-79
ATS
56% 89-70
61% 97-63-1
53% 85-76
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 68-81-10
52% 81-74-6
50% 76-75-10
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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